Post by Dawlish
Post by Doug Miller Post by Curly Surmudgeon Post by D Murphy Post by Gunner Asch Post by D Murphy
Looks like 1998 was the hot year and its been getting cooler ever since.
Cliff isn't very good at math and has little understanding of
Post by Curly Surmudgeon Post by D Murphy
It's funny how he will dismiss ten years of cooler temperatures
as "weather" but cites an El Nino as a sign of impending global
Wow. I'm convinced. That nifty graph proves Cliff got better at
math between 1950 and 2000.
But seeing as it doesn't cover this winter, it probably doesn't
Does not cover next year either.
But it does show that "ten years of cooler temperatures"
is a big winger lie. As usual & as expected.
Feel free to point out the years warmer than '98.
2005 (NASA) and the period May 2009 - March 2010 is warmer than the
same period in 1998 (and any other year). Jan-Dec years are very
arbitrary time periods and one year is far too short a period from
which to deduce anything to do with climate. Decades are better. The
last decade was significantly warmer than the 90s.
Or maybe you could explain Phil Jones' statement that there's no
statistically significant warming in the last 15 years.
Maybe you'd like to read the actual BBC interview?
You have to understand a little about statistical significance to
understand this, of course, but there has been warning and it alnost
achieved 95% significance. That's what Phil Jones meant. The warming
was significant at >90%. I hope someone will now alter their sig to
say the truth. "Over the last 15 years, there has been warming at the
90%+ significance level. Again, Phil Jones has also said the every
decade of the last century was warmer than the decade previous to it.
That longer timespan is a far better measure.
While you're at it explain how warm El Nino winters are proof of
whatever idiocy you were claiming about this past winter.
This has been a moderate El Nino. 1998, the "record year" that you
refer to, was the largest El Nino of the modern era. We presently have
an extended solar minimum, which we didn't then and the PDO is
negative (positive in 1998) Both of those are cooling factors.
Temperatures through this El NIno and despite the cooling factors are
roughly comparable to 1998. What does that tell you has happened to
the background world temperature?
Dan- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Well, you've taken this even further out of context, plus with Cliff's
snipping out the relevent bits, it gets hard to follow. So here's the
context: Cliff made a statement that this might be a record warm winter
in the US. I post a link that shows ENSO data that concludes with
evidence of the current El Nino, so you'd expect certain weather
patterns. Cliff doesn't respond, likely because he doesn't get it. Later
I make the observation how any data, such as the absence of a warming
trend over the last ten years, that is counter to his beliefs is
dismissed by him as weather. But when data shows that weather patterns
like El Nino help explain the recent warm weather, he's silent. Then
Curly posts a link to a Hadcrut graph of some unkown temperature series
from 1950-2000 to show that the last ten years have in fact been warmer.
Then Cliff jumps in with the brilliant observation that in order to
disprove that the last ten years have been cooler years than 1998, you
needn't look at the last ten years.
So, there's nothing incorrect about anything I've posted so far. You
seem to be making some unfounded assumptions into what I've written. I
didn't post any conclusions, just observations.
Take statistics for instance. In manufacturing we apply them in process
control. So I have more than a passing familiarity with them, thank you
very much. I've also read the interview with Jones and agree that it is
often mischarecterized, but I don't see where I did that in the context
of talking about the last ten years.
To sum it all up, I posted ENSO data to show Cliff that you might expect
the weather he posted about, and from that action, everyone assumes that
they know what I think about AGW and jumps to conclusions that aren't